'Time for talk is over': US grapples for new approach on North Korea
Hong Kong (CNN)North
Korea's test of a long-range missile that could hit major US cities has
drawn condemnation from the US, China, Japan and South Korea, and calls
for a rethink in tactics toward Pyongyang, given the dramatic
escalation in its capabilities.
US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley late Sunday dismissed claims Washington was seeking UN Security Council action, as it has done following previous tests, pointing out North Korea "is already subject to numerous Security Council resolutions that they violate with impunity."
"The time for talk is over," Haley said, and instead pointed to China,
saying Beijing "must decide if it is finally willing to take this vital
step" of challenging Pyongyang, a point that echoed US President Donald
Trump Saturday, who said he was "very disappointed in China."
"Our
foolish past leaders have allowed (Beijing) to make hundreds of
billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with
North Korea, just talk," Trump tweeted.
On
Monday, Trump spoke to his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, committing
to increase diplomatic and economic pressure on North Korea.
In other developments over the weekend:
- The US said it conducted a successful test of the Alaska-based THAAD missile defense and sent two B-1 bombers from Guam on a 10-hour round trip over the Korean Peninsula
- US Vice President Mike Pence said "all options are on the table" when it comes to North Korea
- China unveiled a new long-range missile at a huge military parade
Friday's test was deemed more advanced than
the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched on July 4 and
marks a big step forward from a country once deemed incapable of putting
forward a serious ICBM program.
Why North Korea still hates the United States: The legacy of the Korean War
No good option
Sanctions
and pressuring China have been the main avenues for attempting to
contain North Korea's nuclear and missile programs in the past -- with
little success.
Despite this, both
still have their proponents, with some analysts arguing sanctions have
not been targeted correctly or wide enough, and others -- including US
administration officials -- saying sanctions should go after Chinese interests as a means of forcing Beijing's hand on North Korea.
Speaking last week,
Susan Thornton, acting assistant secretary of the State Department's
East Asia bureau, said "the Chinese are now very clear that we're going
to go after Chinese entities if need be."
While China is North Korea's primary trading partner, and trade between the countries may be increasing even as Beijing cuts coal and other exports,
analysts have questioned whether economic pressure could ever rein in
Pyongyang's military ambitions given the primacy the regime places on
the nuclear program in terms of ensuring its survival.
Both
the Obama and Trump administrations have placed great weight on Beijing
acting to contain its neighbor and longtime ally, but some analysts
warn assumptions about China's influence on the North Korean regime may
be out of date.
"Beijing's
channels to Pyongyang are frayed, they're weak," said John Delury, an
expert on Chinese-Korean relations at Seoul's Yonsei University.
"President
Trump's tweets reflect this inherited Obama view that the road to
Pyongyang leads through Beijing -- that's a dead end."
Mike Chinoy, author of "Meltdown: Inside the North Korean nuclear crisis," told CNN
last year many high-level North Koreans "resent the hell out of the
Chinese. They hate the idea that the Chinese can come in and tell them
what to do. And the reality is the Chinese can't."
Why neither North Korea nor the United States want all-out war
Time for talks?
If
sanctions have proven ineffective and China doesn't have as much
influence as Washington makes out, that leaves two previously
unpalatable options on the table -- military action, or negotiating directly with North Korea.
While some in the US administration, including CIA chief Mike Pompeo, have signaled support for regime change in Pyongyang,
the risks of that devolving into civil war and chaos are great, and
State Department officials have said the option is not on the table.
The risks of a military strike or all out conflict with North Korea are even greater, with US Defense Secretary James Mattis warning last month it could result in tragedy "on an unbelievable scale."
"The time to launch a preventative war is before they have a nuclear armed ICBM," said arms control expert Jeffrey Lewis on his podcast last week.
That leaves diplomacy. Since the six party talks
-- involving North Korea, China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the US
-- ended in failure more than a decade ago, multiple US administrations
have refused to return to the negotiating table with Pyongyang unless
the regime agrees to give up its nuclear program.
That
approach is looking increasingly absurd, Lewis pointed out. "We've
consistently had this idea that the North Koreans are a joke and we
don't have to give them anything," he said. "People were wrong about
that, the North Koreans didn't get strong armed (at the six party
talks), they built nuclear weapons, and now they've built an ICBM."
Jon Wolfsthal, a former national security adviser to Obama, said last week the US may have to give up on denuclearizing North Korea.
"As
much as I would like North Korea to freeze and end its nuclear program,
no combination of threats, engagement, negotiations, and sanctions, has
produced that outcome," he wrote.
Instead,
Wolfsthal said the US should move towards a policy of deterring
Pyongyang from ever using its weapons: "The Trump administration must
communicate directly with its North Korean counterparts to ensure they
have a clear understanding of what actions would provoke a direct US
response."
Speaking Sunday,
senior Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein urged the Trump
administration "to begin some very serious negotiation with the North
and stop this program."
Delury
said the US "needs to open up high level channels directly with with
Pyongyang, as direct to Kim Jong Un as possible, and work it from
there."
Doing so may prove as
difficult as other approaches however. South Korea invited North Korea
to begin joint military talks this month -- they never got an answer.
Moon
Sang-gyun, spokesman for the South Korean Ministry of National Defense
said Monday that invitation remained: "The military's stance of strongly
responding to North Korea's provocations hasn't changed a single bit.
But I'd like to say that doors are always open for dialogue."
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