'Time for talk is over': US grapples for new approach on North Korea
Hong Kong (CNN)North
 Korea's test of a long-range missile that could hit major US cities has
 drawn condemnation from the US, China, Japan and South Korea, and calls
 for a rethink in tactics toward Pyongyang, given the dramatic 
escalation in its capabilities. 
US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley late Sunday dismissed claims Washington was seeking UN Security Council action, as it has done following previous tests, pointing out North Korea "is already subject to numerous Security Council resolutions that they violate with impunity." 
"The time for talk is over," Haley said, and instead pointed to China,
 saying Beijing "must decide if it is finally willing to take this vital
 step" of challenging Pyongyang, a point that echoed US President Donald
 Trump Saturday, who said he was "very disappointed in China." 
"Our
 foolish past leaders have allowed (Beijing) to make hundreds of 
billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with 
North Korea, just talk," Trump tweeted. 
On
 Monday, Trump spoke to his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, committing 
to increase diplomatic and economic pressure on North Korea. 
In other developments over the weekend:
- The US said it conducted a successful test of the Alaska-based THAAD missile defense and sent two B-1 bombers from Guam on a 10-hour round trip over the Korean Peninsula
- US Vice President Mike Pence said "all options are on the table" when it comes to North Korea
- China unveiled a new long-range missile at a huge military parade
Friday's test was deemed more advanced than
 the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched on  July 4 and 
marks a big step forward from a country once deemed incapable of putting
 forward a serious ICBM program.
Why North Korea still hates the United States: The legacy of the Korean War
No good option
Sanctions
 and pressuring China have been the main avenues for attempting to 
contain North Korea's nuclear and missile programs in the past -- with 
little success. 
Despite this, both
 still have their proponents, with some analysts arguing sanctions have 
not been targeted correctly or wide enough, and others -- including US 
administration officials -- saying sanctions should go after Chinese interests as a means of forcing Beijing's hand on North Korea. 
Speaking last week,
 Susan Thornton, acting assistant secretary of the State Department's 
East Asia bureau, said "the Chinese are now very clear that we're going 
to go after Chinese entities if need be."
While China is North Korea's primary trading partner, and trade between the countries may be increasing even as Beijing cuts coal and other exports,
 analysts have questioned whether economic pressure could ever rein in 
Pyongyang's military ambitions given the primacy the regime places on 
the nuclear program in terms of ensuring its survival. 
Both
 the Obama and Trump administrations have placed great weight on Beijing
 acting to contain its neighbor and longtime ally, but some analysts 
warn assumptions about China's influence on the North Korean regime may 
be out of date. 
"Beijing's 
channels to Pyongyang are frayed, they're weak," said John Delury, an 
expert on Chinese-Korean relations at Seoul's Yonsei University.
"President
 Trump's tweets reflect this inherited Obama view that the road to 
Pyongyang leads through Beijing -- that's a dead end." 
Mike Chinoy, author of "Meltdown: Inside the North Korean nuclear crisis," told CNN
 last year many high-level North Koreans "resent the hell out of the 
Chinese. They hate the idea that the Chinese can come in and tell them 
what to do. And the reality is the Chinese can't."
Why neither North Korea nor the United States want all-out war
Time for talks?
If
 sanctions have proven ineffective and China doesn't have as much 
influence as Washington makes out, that leaves two previously 
unpalatable options on the table -- military action, or negotiating directly with North Korea. 
While some in the US administration, including CIA chief Mike Pompeo, have signaled support for regime change in Pyongyang,
 the risks of that devolving into civil war and chaos are great, and 
State Department officials have said the option is not on the table. 
The risks of a military strike or all out conflict with North Korea are even greater, with US Defense Secretary James Mattis warning last month it could result in tragedy "on an unbelievable scale." 
"The time to launch a preventative war is before they have a nuclear armed ICBM," said arms control expert Jeffrey Lewis on his podcast last week. 
That leaves diplomacy. Since the six party talks
 -- involving North Korea, China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the US 
-- ended in failure more than a decade ago, multiple US administrations 
have refused to return to the negotiating table with Pyongyang unless 
the regime agrees to give up its nuclear program. 
That
 approach is looking increasingly absurd, Lewis pointed out. "We've 
consistently had this idea that the North Koreans are a joke and we 
don't have to give them anything," he said. "People were wrong about 
that, the North Koreans didn't get strong armed (at the six party 
talks), they built nuclear weapons, and now they've built an ICBM." 
Jon Wolfsthal, a former national security adviser to Obama, said last week the US may have to give up on denuclearizing North Korea. 
"As
 much as I would like North Korea to freeze and end its nuclear program,
 no combination of threats, engagement, negotiations, and sanctions, has
 produced that outcome," he wrote. 
Instead,
 Wolfsthal said the US should move towards a policy of deterring 
Pyongyang from ever using its weapons: "The Trump administration must 
communicate directly with its North Korean counterparts to ensure they 
have a clear understanding of what actions would provoke a direct US 
response." 
Speaking Sunday,
 senior Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein urged the Trump 
administration "to begin some very serious negotiation with the North 
and stop this program." 
Delury 
said the US "needs to open up high level channels directly with with 
Pyongyang, as direct to Kim Jong Un as possible, and work it from 
there." 
Doing so may prove as 
difficult as other approaches however. South Korea invited North Korea 
to begin joint military talks this month -- they never got an answer. 
Moon
 Sang-gyun, spokesman for the South Korean Ministry of National Defense 
said Monday that invitation remained: "The military's stance of strongly
 responding to North Korea's provocations hasn't changed a single bit. 
But I'd like to say that doors are always open for dialogue." 
 
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